Groundhog Day

$FINL and $NKE were the two simple trades of the day, both massive shorts and big wins.  $FINL has been a veritable ATM since the mid 20’s started cracking.   I feel like its groundhog day in the retail sector, anyone else??  It does have me thinking bigger picture on where this business is going.  How much, truly, can $AMZN and $WMT truly absorb?

I recognize today’s consumer has the opportunity to be more educated than ever….HOWEVER, just because it says it on the internet does not mean that its true.  I think of this specifically for my background, specialty retail.  I remember 5+ years ago, when our customers started coming in knowing just as much (or more) on Garmin and some footwear models than what I would know and I would be scrambling to provide them a reason “why” to shop us.  I can smile and engage like nearly no other, but is that worth it in a consumers eye?  Is it memorable?  I recently said an annoying $DKS sponsored ad on Instagram proudly touting the fact that they will price match anyone.  Meanwhile….well, YOU just take a look at their chart.  Ugh.  I replied with a question of “hey, $DKS, why not arm your teams with knowledge and give your traffic a reason to come into your stores?”  Some lame guy replied back to me stating he would rather buy from a robot.  Really??

That is the great challenge, though for retailers.  If your team doesn’t provide a reason, why should any consumer buy brick and mortar?  The irony is that most b&m are reducing their labor and solely relying on part timers, people who are often not committed to the experience and are often there truly to just get a paycheck.

As I walked around $WMT today here in Honolulu, I was amazed how crazy it was.  Granted, it is back to school and it is Hawaii, where choices are fairly limited and $AMZN may not be the “go-to” option due to timing.  One thing, for sure, I need to do more research.  Right now, my money is on $WMT‘s strength already in B&M and a strong ecommerce experience.  $AMZN still has a lot to learn in physical stores, in my opinion.  Love to hear your thoughts, traders.

 

Friday $NVDA and $NKE

Excited with the close of this week…I think giving myself a solid “talking to” needs to happen more often.  Since I started trading bitcoin in addition to the market, I find myself daily writing out one of my favorite John Wooden quotes as I journal pre market:

One of today’s trades was NKE, in sympathy to FL.  My retail dashboard was complete red today, just a bloodbath on nearly every ticker.  FL reported with a huge miss, so I again turned to my old faithful NKE for a trade.  NKE gave up the gains it had in the past two months in this week alone, happy to say I captured nearly all of that in my trades.  I started this one in pre-market, which I generally don’t like to do but considering how bad FL news was, I knew it was a solid risk to dive into NKE early.  I am glad that I did, as most of its move occurred in pre market and the first part of the morning.

NVDA

One of the rules I have for late Friday trades (post 3 pm) is pretty simple:  NO SHORTS.  Particularly late in the day, it seems shorts are closing out positions and bounces seem to happen more often than not.  NVDA, in particular, is one ticker that forced me to write this rule, as I have been shorting it in vain only to see it rip into close on Friday’s.  Because of this, when I saw the overall markets beginning to stabilize a bit and the support that NVDA was coming into at a decent reversal time, I felt it was a valid trade.  While it didn’t end up ripping as I had hoped, I still eeked out a profit and felt like I managed the trade well.  One of the moderators in the IU chatroom (a fierce trader-I pay attention to every note he writes) called out hesitation on eod flow due to the market volatility today, which is why I swiped the profit when I did.  I have been working hard at starting in small with trades such as this so I can get my average to where it needs to be, which is one of the biggest “make or breaks” in trading.  You can be right in a trade but have a horrible average and get forced out due to current loss amount, only to see it move in your direction.  My experience has taught me one huge lesson…starting small can provide some monster gains and will keep you in trades much longer.  Size is relative to your experience level and I have no doubt that I will look back at my starter size a year from now and see that much larger as I continue to build as a trader.

 

Sympathy retail trades on NKE, FL and WTW

Oh how I wish earnings season occurred more frequently! This morning saw several retailers with earnings; my focus was on DKS and the expected sympathy plays I projected within NKE and FL potentially as a result.  DKS, to no surprise, missed and actually guided lower for backhalf, consequently giving them a nice 10% slap pre market.  When results come out like this, I like to shift my focus to competitors and vendors that can be impacted by these results and/or potentially be in the same boat but have not yet reported and will undoubtedly get punished as well by the street.

I started in on NKE at 10 am with a fail on the HOD break at 10am.

FL was a bit tougher, I started in at 9:40am, a little earlier than I typically like to but because it had gapped down I thought this could be the end of the winning shorts covering and a potential new move downward.  I covered most at 10 am as it started to bounce and was all out at 10:15 am, which I am glad I covered when I did as this ended up with a bounce and not really going anywhere the rest of the day.

WTW

This was probably my best play of the day and the one I am most proud of my execution despite the low volume when I started into the trade.  I had started very small into this short yesterday, given the extended nature of the daily chart.  My intent was to build into any move up, with a full stop over yesterday’s high.  I was looking to add and reduce stop with any large move and confirmed trend direction under vwap but it didn’t happen during the morning session.  I piled in pretty aggressively at 10am as it seemed to be hesitating  a bit and was not getting much of a bid, so I thought this might be the moment.  I ended up with an average of 49.08 on some decent size, so when that stuff back to vwap happened I took no chances on a potential rebounded as this ticker has done lately and took 2/3 off the table. 

 

If you can’t spot the sucker in the room…

Please finish this quote for me and then we can be friends.  I kid, kind of.  The more I trade, the more convinced I am that it is Poker’s twin.   One of my all time favorite movies is “Rounders”.  I won’t even begin to lay down some of the worthy market related quotes that are absolute gems in this movie.  But I will slide this one in front of you: Continue reading “If you can’t spot the sucker in the room…”

Less is More

One play a day keeps the day job away is the theme today….Not feeling 100%, I slept in a bit and started scanning to find a trade that had a solid r/r for the afternoon.

CCL was in the IU scan yesterday looking for failure and a solid fade, so when it pulled up with a  failed follow through at its highs and the market pulling back with decent volume, I felt it was an opportunity worth taking.  My stop was over the high of the day, with an initial goal of VWAP and then potential add if it failed.  What a beauty…I am happy about holding largely down to the whole number for 1/2 of my shares profits.  This market has been tricky about dropping solidly only to rip back up.  It makes it critical to take profits on any solid rips or cracks lest you see it diminish in a bounce.

One play with such a tight r/r produced an awesome profit, so I closed the computer and called it a day! Hope your trading day was solid!

Day One

So, this weekend I went to my favorite quiet beach and had a serious talk with myself.  You know the kind of talk that I mean?  I have had an incredible first 5 months as an independent trader, it has far exceeded what I had expected or hoped for but last week I seriously felt like a maniac trading.  I feel blessed I ended solidly green but felt so trashed and beat up as if I had ended red.  The opportunities and ranges this market is giving is incredible, however at the end of the day what has gotten me to where I am is trading less quantity and more quality.   Continue reading “Day One”