Oh how I wish earnings season occurred more frequently! This morning saw several retailers with earnings; my focus was on DKS and the expected sympathy plays I projected within NKE and FL potentially as a result. DKS, to no surprise, missed and actually guided lower for backhalf, consequently giving them a nice 10% slap pre market. When results come out like this, I like to shift my focus to competitors and vendors that can be impacted by these results and/or potentially be in the same boat but have not yet reported and will undoubtedly get punished as well by the street.
I started in on NKE at 10 am with a fail on the HOD break at 10am.
FL was a bit tougher, I started in at 9:40am, a little earlier than I typically like to but because it had gapped down I thought this could be the end of the winning shorts covering and a potential new move downward. I am glad I covered when I did as this ended up with a bounce and not really going anywhere the rest of the day.
This was probably my best play of the day and the one I am most proud of my execution despite the low volume when I started into the trade. I had started very small into this short yesterday, given the extended nature of the daily chart. My intent was to build into any move up, with a full stop over yesterday’s high. I was looking to add and reduce stop with any large move and confirmed trend direction under vwap but it didn’t happen during the morning session. I piled in pretty aggressively at 10am as it seemed to be hesitating a bit and was not getting much of a bid, so I thought this might be the moment. I ended up with an average of 49.08 on some decent size, so when that stuff back to vwap happened I took no chances on a potential rebounded as this ticker has done lately and took 2/3 off the table.
Please finish this quote for me and then we can be friends. I kid, kind of. The more I trade, the more convinced I am that it is Poker’s twin. One of my all time favorite movies is “Rounders”. I won’t even begin to lay down some of the worthy market related quotes that are absolute gems in this movie. But I will slide this one in front of you: Continue reading “If you can’t spot the sucker in the room…”
One play a day keeps the day job away is the theme today….Not feeling 100%, I slept in a bit and started scanning to find a trade that had a solid r/r for the afternoon.
CCL was in the IU scan yesterday looking for failure and a solid fade, so when it pulled up with a failed follow through at its highs and the market pulling back with decent volume, I felt it was an opportunity worth taking. My stop was over the high of the day, with an initial goal of VWAP and then potential add if it failed. What a beauty…I am happy about holding largely down to the whole number for 1/2 of my shares profits. This market has been tricky about dropping solidly only to rip back up. It makes it critical to take profits on any solid rips or cracks lest you see it diminish in a bounce.
One play with such a tight r/r produced an awesome profit, so I closed the computer and called it a day! Hope your trading day was solid!
So, this weekend I went to my favorite quiet beach and had a serious talk with myself. You know the kind of talk that I mean? I have had an incredible first 5 months as an independent trader, it has far exceeded what I had expected or hoped for but last week I seriously felt like a maniac trading. I feel blessed I ended solidly green but felt so trashed and beat up as if I had ended red. The opportunities and ranges this market is giving is incredible, however at the end of the day what has gotten me to where I am is trading less quantity and more quality. Continue reading “Day One”
What a week of insane moves! As I reflect and analyze my trades from the prior week, my biggest realization is that I need to SLOW down. Seriously, this is how I looked last week:
Continue reading “Adjusting the process”
How does that song go..”time just keeps ticking, ticking, ticking…into the future”… Amazing that we are already into August, but excited to see the beginning of fall trading and earnings season as a full time trader now. Let’s go! Continue reading “Keeping Losses Tight”
Earnings season is in full swing right now and I am amazed every day at the ranges in so many names! It is a bit challenging to not have some FOMO but at the end of the day what has been working for me is the same thing that has always worked. Focus on a few and follow my rules.
Sweet, sweet AMAZON…
This came courtesy of Nate in the Investors Live chatroom. Absolute unreal trade! It had been on my radar to watch for this setup, so when Nate posted, I didn’t hesitate to hit the sell button with my normal starter position on a stock with that pricing. While I didn’t have the opportunity to add, I covered for unreal gains with a trailing stop on the 5 minute chart. Just amazing…and incredibly happy I stayed focused and didn’t let my PNL shake me out. Specifically not looking at my PNL has, without a doubt, been the largest contributor to some of my most successful trades this year, it enables me to trade the ticker and focus on the play, not the $$$$’s.
My favorite type of play and other large win this week came via FCX. The daily produced a beautiful market candle that showed some serious conviction on the buy side and open air above on the daily, so I was on full alert for any washout buy opportunity. It opened weak and I waited to see if my favorite setup would develop. The market awarded my patience with a solid r/r setup and I took the trade for a solid payday. Above anything else, both of these trades show the power of patience! Not every trade goes this smoothly and there are times when being patience results in leaving some money on the table but when the market is showing conviction in its movement, it is truly invaluable to let the trades ride.
Me on Monday. I had a streak of 4 weeks of GREEN days and fell flat on my face on Monday. So, what went wrong? Pretty simple explanation:
I IGNORED MY RULES.
Silly, really. Two big rules that, when ignored, will slap you upside the head every time a trader tries to think they are better than them.
- Fighting trend above VWAP
- Starting said position with too big of size
While it definitely didn’t make my day, I walked away from my computer ok with a little humbling. I know that it is extremely rare for traders to be green every day and knowing that, I am very proud of my performance in the past month. Additionally, I think this was a good little slap to make sure I am not becoming complacent.
“Comfort breeds Complacency”
Happy to say I bounced back in a major way on Tuesday and had a killer day today with VRTX. What a fade! I started in on this in pre-market and stayed until 3pm. Unreal $10/share! Really happy with how I traded this one. I was adding/taking profits….snoozing because this bled the slowest I have ever seen. Really wanted to see massive panic for whatever reason…but I am not going to complain over this move. It is high on my watchlist tomorrow morning, I hope it opens slightly higher for a continued fade, ideally with some panic this go around.
7/15 will officially one year since my move to Hawaii. Within that year, a lot sure has happened! Full time trading no doubt tops my list and I still cannot believe I have this opportunity. It has opened doors and given me an incredible vision of what my future will hold. I am looking forward to my first official quarter of training reporting but as of right now I am up 100% on my account in just 3 months. I-N-S-A-N-E.
The biggest lesson I have learned thus far is that LESS is truly MORE. Days when I trade 1-2 stocks typically produce my largest gains. I have also realized, through continuous analysis, I crush in Retail and Tech. Tech has been fascinating to me and really a focus just within the last six weeks. The ATR within tech names are incredible, and even if there isn’t huge momentum in the daily, the channels quite often produce reasonable trades for decent gains.
That being said, if they don’t seem strong in direction, or the market is just churning, I have learned to stay out. I do not need to trade everyday…I think this is a lesson that would behoove many new traders to learn early in their journey. There is no question, it is hard but those days when I force myself to take no action are the days I am most proud. Money kept out of trades is money saved.
I will detail this in my recap at the end of the month but big goals are being set along with plans to accomplish said goals. After all, a goal without a plan is just a wish and there is no wishing well in my plan.
Pretty amazing week with continued large moves in retail and as of last Friday-tech!…would not mind this to continue! I ended the week with my best batting average yet of 81%…no surprise that nearly all of my plays were shorts. When I stand back and look at it, it truly makes me wonder why I even go long. I have been slacking on weekly recaps, I am now committing to be more diligent and utilize the slower summer mid mornings to get on a regular blogging routine.
Heavy hitters this week for me were the following stocks, 95% of all of my plays were in this small handful of stocks. These are “go-to” stocks for me when the set ups are there:
NKE, FL, DKS, NVDA, YHOO, AAPL,AMZN
Finding stocks that you are familiar that move in conjunction with the market I think is integral for success. Banks are another sector that could be added into the mix as they typically follow the market, although with the sector rotation that seemed to happen this week the flow didn’t seem to be there.
Here is a snapshot of a trade I took late today (2:30pm EST) on NVDA. This is something that has been really working for me on the short side, I like building into a short into prior resistance and then adding upon confirmation. I was hoping for a bit more of a bleed but making $1.30/share on a .30 risk is not too bad of a scalp.
Time for me to go surf. Have a great weekend, everyone!